Alert on the art market

At Artprice through the extensive coverage of 2,900 auction houses, we have the tools to pick up the slightest flicker of life on the art market*. But readings since July have been desperately flat. The market is suffering a severe dearth of supply and sale after sale is being put back to the point where virtually nothing is coming onto the stands. Auctioneers’ turnover since July 15 is a quarter what it was in the same period of 2000.

As the auction stands have emptied, transaction volumes have hit an all-time low, reflected statistically in a relentless decline in lots sold. Only 164 catalogued Fine Art auctions were held in August compared to more than 401 in August 2002, and things seem to be getting worse. By September 8 we had only had news of 228 auctions for the month, compared to 841 catalogues issued in September 2002, and the catalogues we are seeing seem to be shrinking before our eyes as houses struggle to find the works to fill them.

Auctioneers may be doing their utmost to breathe some life into the market but sellers are not responding any more. At the peak of the market in 2000, summer sales at the US houses saw 10 times the number of sales we are seeing this year. The slump in volume has directly impacted US turnover, which is down 45% on the first half of 2000 (see ArtMarketInsight of August 29th 2003). High profile sales at Christie’s and Sotheby’s may have gone some way to mask the reality, but the figures speak for themselves. Only 121,000 lots were put up in the first season of 2003, compared to 180,000 the year before.
The story varies, though, depending on the price range you look at. Between January 1 and July 15 only 126 lots went for more than EUR 1 million, compared to 176 over the same period of 2002, a 28% fall. At the cheaper end of the market, the number of lots sold for less than EUR 10,000 also plummeted, by 34%. But mid-range works, priced between EUR 10,000 and EUR 100,000 sold relatively consistently. Sales in this segment of the market are down by a relatively modest 13%.
Regionally, the market seems to have turned a corner. With the US mired in despondency, a number of the big European markets are bidding to narrow the turnover gap, including France, boosted by the Breton sale (see ArtMarketInsight of July 29th 2003), and Germany, which is most reliant on the less than EUR 10,000 market (see ArtMarketInsight of August 28th 2003).

The biggest houses seem to be holding up well. Market leaders Sotheby’s and Christie’s knocked down 24% of the global art market’s transactions between them in the first half of 2003, compared to 18% a year ago. They tend to attract the more active buyers and are looking at a bought-in rate of 29%, compared to over 37% on average at other auction houses. Of the big two, Christie’s came out ahead between January 1 and July 15 2003, turning over EUR 437 million. Last year they had trailed Sotheby’s despite turning over EUR 134 million more.

Despite the headline-grabbing sales at the leading houses, records set for Egon Schiele and Mantegna, and some nice sales in rare speculative niches, accurate information is more than ever vital to enter this new season.

*Breakdowns / figures cover all catalogued sales of fine art works recorded by Artprice (paintings, sculpture, print, drawing, photography, etc.) excluding antiques and furniture. Monthly Fine Art auction sales previews from 2,900 auctioneers (1998 – Sept. 2003)Update : 08 Sept. 2003

Number of lots put on sale by countryAuction sale of the first auction season (2,900 aucioneers)Country01/01/2000 15/07/200001/01/2003 15/07/2003Growth rateFrance4127825465-38%United Kingdom3335818433-45%Germany2611716020-39%United States2727513697-50%Italy105838855-16%Denmark59364945-17%Spain83954874-42%Switzerland73894437-40%Austria48404208-13%Netherlands76033606-53%