Could we see a USD 70 million Picasso? Dream or reality?

A mood of optimism has been sweeping through the market since the beginning of the season. The most astonishing forecast for 2004 is that Picasso’s Garçon à la pipe is expected to set a new record of USD 70 million on 5 May at Sotheby’s. What could possibly justify such a high estimate?

Top annual auction record for the Pablo Picasso’s works of art (1997-2003)

First, this is a work of exceptional quality, a rare and important piece from the pink period measuring nearly one metre in height. Picasso painted it in 1905 shortly after his arrival in Montmartre. No work of this size and so representative of the pink period has been put up for auction since his Demi-nue à la cruche on 14 May 1997 which went for USD 7.2 million, around a tenth of the estimate for Garçon à la Pipe. Picasso’s current record was set at Christie’s on 8 November 2000 for Femme aux bras croisés, an important work from the blue period painted in 1901-1902, which went under the hammer for USD 50 million.

Second, the origin. The painting comes from the Whitney collection, one of the most important in the United States. Previous works sold off from this collection by Sotheby’s have knotched up USD 260 million between them. These included Manet’s Courses au bois de Boulogne, another top lot on 5 May 2004 and, with an estimate of USD 20-30 million, perhaps another new record?

Third, developments in Picasso’s market. Picasso’s market supply has been drying up gradually and, as in 2001 his prices have reached a peak. After a perceptible decline in 2002, the value of his paintings appreciated sharply in 2003. Even his latest works have begun to sell well, some doubling their estimates. The most impressive sales include Personnage à la pipe (1971) which sold for USD 3.6 million having been estimated at USD 2-2.5 million, Le Baiser (1969), estimated at GBP 1.2-1.8 million which found a buyer at GBP 2.55 million and Le tremplin (1957) which doubled its estimations to fetch USD 1.25 million.

Finally, the economic climate. On the evidence of November’s sales, the New York market has bounced back. And judging by the USD 24 million sale of Modigliani’s Nu couché, sur le côté gauche (1917) on 4 November 2003 at Christie’s, the wealthiest collectors are keen to take home important modern works. And the continuing slide in the dollar is making the US market particularly attractive. if.

All the factors look to be in place for a new record. But how far will bids rise before the hammer comes down? Remember that the highest ever price paid at auction for an artwork remains the USD 75 million paid by Ryoei Saito for Portrait du Docteur Gachet on 15 May 1990.