Contemporary art: an increasingly speculative segment

Between 2003 and 2004, total revenue from fine art auctions worldwide rose 37% to close to USD 3.5 billion. With a number of major sales in the modern art segment, 2004 was above all a very successful year for contemporary art which doubled its revenue of the previous year. According to Artprice’s econometric data, prices on the contemporary art segment rose 17% over the twelve months of 2004 with the segment accounting for 6.4% of total art revenue compared to 4.4% the previous year.

Jeff Koons, Jean-Michel Basquiat, Maurizio Cattelan and Damien Hirst accounted for the bulk of this progression with 22 sales above the USD 1 million mark. The highest price paid in the segment was USD 4.9 million for a sculpture by Jeff Koons entitled “Jim Beam J.B Turner Train” (1986) sold at Christie’s on 11 May 2004.

Whereas Jeff Koons was the most in-demand contemporary artist in 2004, in 1990 he had never sold a work at auction. At the time, Eric Fischl was the star of the moment: aged only 42, one of his works sold for USD 650,000. In 2004, the highest price paid for a Fischl was only USD 360,000. The average price paid for works by artists in the 25-45 age bracket back in 1990 was USD 32,500 in New York and GBP 4,800 in London. The stars of 1990 (Eric Fischl, Anselm Kiefer, Donald Sultan, Sean Scully and Miquel Barcelo) have, on average, seen their values double since then.

Fifteen years later, works of the new wave of contemporary artists, born between 1959 and 1979, such as Cattelan, Damien Hirst, John Currin, Murakami and Rachel Whiteread are already changing hands for an average of USD 80,700 in the US and GBP 36,000 in London. In 2004, a work by Maurizio Cattelan, who was 44 years old, sold for USD 2.7 million, i.e. four times Eric Fischl’s top price in 1990. In fact, driven by very strong demand, Anglo-American speculation on contemporary art is accelerating even faster today than in 1990. However, as the Jeff Koons example demonstrates, it is very likely that the auction star fifteen years from now – whoever that may be – has not yet sold a single work at auction.