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Artron’s market trend analysis

The Chinese traditional painting index

AMMA has developed the “400-component index for Chinese painting” to reflect the impressive evolution of the Chinese painting market in the long-term. The index is calculated with the latest 5-year auction data of 400 selected Classic, Modern, and Contemporary Chinese painting artists from major auction houses. The index is established at value of 1,000 in the base period of Spring 2000.

400-component Chinese painting index – Spring 2000 to Autumn 2018

400-component Chinese painting index - Spring 2000 to Autumn 2018

The data from AMMA’s 400-component index for Chinese paintings shows that sales in autumn 2018 reached $49,288,600, an increase of 7% over the previous semester, and its index is currently sitting at 6,606 points, a drop of 5% compared to the previous semester. The average turnover from artwork sales is on the decline, indicative of a sustained downturn in the art market as a whole. And yet, 2018-2019 is believed to be an excellent time for high-end collectors to enter the market, as the effects of a weakened economy mean that some premium lot holders are beginning to slacken and prices are starting to rebalance.

The Chinese oil painting index

“AMMA’s 100-component index for oil paintings” is a price index which aims to reflect the market trend of Chinese oil painting market. It is calculated with the latest 5-year auction data of 100 selected Chinese oil painting artists from sample auction houses. The index is established at value of 1,000 in the base period of Spring 2000.

100-component oil painting index – Spring 2000 to Autumn 2018

100-component oil painting index - Spring 2000 to Autumn 2018

The data from AMMA’s 100-component index for oil paintings shows that sales in autumn 2018 reached $22,395,700, an increase of 4% over the previous semester, and its index is currently sitting at 24,809 points, a drop of 11% compared to the previous semester. Chinese oil paintings and contemporary art demonstrated steady growth in 2018, with the market expanding by 34.12% compared to the same time last year. Prices in this sector are continuing to rise and market demand for high-end lots is continuing to grow. However, the average transaction price is trending downwards, suggesting a slump in the overall art market in 2018 from which it has yet to recover.

The Artron Art Composite Index

The Artron Art Composite Index is a tool that analyses an artist’s vitality over a certain period of time. It only reflects the artist’s vitality in primary and secondary art markets during the specified times, and should not be used to judge an artist’s market price and academic standing in the art market as a whole.

In Artron’s 2017 Art Composite Index rankings, contemporary calligrapher Fan Yang secured top spot and his market vitality increased dramatically. In 2017 the artist held 35 exhibitions of his work in China, across 13 different provinces/cities. Vitality was high in primary markets, although somewhat muted in secondary ones. 53 Fan Yang pieces were sold in 2017 for a total turnover of $30.3 million, with the highest selling price $477,000 and average price per square foot $81,000/sq. ft. His solid performance in primary markets may spark further expansion in secondary markets, where it is believed that Fan Yang’s artworks have significant room for growth.

Chinese painting performances vs. return on gold

Chinese painting performances vs. return on gold

Artron’s « Calligraphy and Paintings vs. Gold » Return Index shows a lower level of risk with ROI in contemporary calligraphy and paintings compared to classical and modern calligraphy and paintings. Excluding autumn 2016 when returns on auctions were slightly lower than those on gold, returns have been consistently higher than gold at all other time points. This is in addition to the fact that classical calligraphy and paintings also require verification of their authenticity, which affects ROI in the sector and makes returns more high-risk. In autumn 2017, the returns on Chinese classical, modern and contemporary calligraphy and paintings were all higher than returns on gold.

Note: The « Calligraphy and Paintings vs. Gold » Return Index uses a brand-new art price analysis model to directly compare the price of artwork with the price of gold, removing any impact caused by currency inflation, to offer a more accurate picture of the actual return from art investments. This gives investors a more rational view of an artwork’s ability to appreciate in value.

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